The worst is Over

The trouble is over but it really isn’t over. The business sections of the papers are optimistic; it’s time to clean up the mess and get back to the business of providing commerce.

Bangkok in Turmoil  

Have you ever been somewhere and really wished you understood the language? For the past week I’ve watched the Thai news on T.V., overheard conversations and finally resorted to the English language newspapers. I’m just not at all certain that I really get what’s happened, happening and will happen; maybe no one really has the whole picture. Having said that I’ll share with you some of the things I think are true and some that I think are false. There are four English language sources that I’ve used here.

• The Bangkok Post which has a fairly good website at www.bangkokpost.com (they were initially pro-UDD but have backed off their public support as the situation worsened).
• The Nation has a web presence at www.nationmultimedia.com (they have always been pro-government). 
• International Herald Tribune (The global edition of the New York Times) http://www.global.nytimes.com/  
• http://www.cnn.com/ (they were interviewing the “red-shirt” rebel general when he was shot).

Back in March (it seems like such a long time ago, but mostly for personal reasons) supporters of the “red-shirt” party started to organize and hold peaceful rallies. My understanding was that the United Front for democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) known as the “red-shirt” party represented, in large, the poor rural people in a classic struggle between the haves and have nots. Their leader and primary source of funding is the ex-prime minister Taksin Shinawatra who lost power in a bloodless coup in 2006. Most of the people in the North and the East were pro-Taksin while most of the Bangkok were against him. .

During his regime Thaksin did much to help the North. Most of his programs have been abandoned by the current administration. Roads and waterways were improved. There was a five year plan to improve the water traffic along the Mekong River which would enhance trade between Thailand and China, Myanmar and Laos. It would have also had a positive effect on trade with Cambodia and Vietnam. Virtually no progress has been made since he left office.

After the coup Taksin fled the country. He was tried in absentia, convicted of corruption and in January sentenced to two years in prison. The sentencing seemed to be the thing that ignited the “red-shirt” protests. Taksin was in Cambodia for a while serving as some sort of financial consultant. This was very unpopular with the Thais. I recently read that he has acquired a citizenship in Dubai where he is investing a lot of money. It is reported that he made off with as much as 374 Billion Baht (7% of the TGNP).

The current Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva is as smooth as any European politician. He’s oxford educated, looks marvelous on television and is very popular with most of the Thai people. The main criticism had been his unwillingness to take action to end the conflict. This complaint came from all quarters, at least that what I have understood. Remember, the “red-shirts” wanted him to dissolve the lower parliament and hold free elections. The rest of the country wanted him to make the demonstrations and disruptions to business and commerce. His press releases constantly talked of using caution and not taking actions that would cause unnecessary casualties. Last Sunday’s papers reported that the nation was on the edge of anarchy and both the Bangkok Post and the Nation called for positive action.

There was a plan to dissolve the lower parliament and schedule elections for November 14th. One of the conditions was that the UDD cease with their demonstrations and their people return home. The deadline passed, as did the next one. At this point the elections were cancelled because of “The UDD failure to keep the agreement”. One of the problems within the UDD has been infighting within it’s leadership. One guy would make an agreement and another leader would refuse to abide. Thaksin, who is hiding overseas and making public statements that he has no responsibility, certainly doesn’t help the situation. On the 16th of May one of the most fanatic of the red-shirt leaders, ex Major General Khattaya Sawasdipol, a.k.a. Seh Dang (red) was assassinated while giving a T.V. interview. There are speculations that the UDD had him killed, and of course the UDD blame the Army. Who knows the truth? Certainly not me. Anyway from there things got worse until it all came to a head on the 19th.

An interesting comparison between Abhist’s methods and those of Taksin can be found in a letter to the editior of the Bangkok Post written by Pierre Paccuad and published on Thursday May 20, 2010. He wrote:

“ I am surprised that a respectable sours as the Bangkok Post dares to publish such a misleading “analysis” as the one headlined, “This is a massacre..”.. Under a very brave pseudonym, it’s author forces us to believe the PM Abshit Vejjajiva is the worse criminal in modern Thai history. We learn that since April 10, more than 50 Thai protestors have been killed—“ more than any crackdown by previous Thail military regimes in the past 50 years!”

“In fact, the worst ever crackdown against protesters occurred under Thaksin Shinawatra’s so-called democratic regime, on October 25, 2004 in Tak Bai. And the protestors there were really unarmed: they did not use women and children as human shields, they did not assault a hospital, they did not throw grenades at a pacific crowd, they did not take hostage a city of 12 million inhabitants, they did not destroy the daily lives of 60,000 workers.

“In Tak Bai, on that single day, at least 85 people died. I repeat: in one single day, and not in two months time. Tak Bai protestors did not get the chance to explain their demands in a live TV debate, they were not offerered a road map. No dialogue, no compromise. No daily deadline. They were killed in cold blood.

“This is not to say that the 50 deaths that occurred during the last month in Bangkok are acceptable. None can be. Or ever should. This is just to remind everyone (and notably the glorious international press) that there is a moral difference between Abshisit and Thaksin’s way of dealing in time of crisis”.

PIERRE PACCAUD

(Not a pseudonym)

Both sides blame each other for the fatalities. The UDD claimed that the M-79 gernade launchings came from the Thai army. A Thai army spokesman went on public television and demonstrated that the M-79 round does not fit in the grenade launchers used by the Thai Army. Their grenade launchers are a bit smaller. 75 or 76 mm. The red-shirts have M-16 rifles as well as AK 47’s. All of this armament is said to come from Thaksin’s involvement with Cambodia, but that could be a whole history book. The Thai army does in fact have M-16’s provided by the United States. To my knowledge they don’t have AK 47’s, but I must reserve my right to be wrong on this point. My personal guess is that most of the violence is the fault of the UDD, but certainly not all of it.

On Wednesday the government started rounding up the protestors and sending them home. Sadly there were renegades who started fires and really created havoc. I’m sure it made the news where ever you may be reading this. Thursday’s paper headlines included “Thailand’s Blackest Day”, “Fiery Anarchy” and “Bangkok in Shambles”. One English Speaking financial expert who has lived in Thailand for over 20 years said on TV yesterday that this situation is by far the worst he has seen. His was unwilling to say that the situation had damaged Thailand in the international markets but did repeat that the world Is watching with a cautious eye.

Thailand is NOT a fallen state, no more than the U.S.A. was a fallen state as a result of the Vietnam protests. The Vietnam protestors did in fact change America, but did America get better, or did the power mongers just get more efficient at covering up wrong doing for the sake of greed and power?

Will similar questions be asked about the Thai situation in years to come? Here the protests may be over, but there is a sense that the conflict remains. Still the Thai have the ability to actually love and respect each other. My guess is that tourism and export will be back on track in short order.

As I finish this, it’s Saturday the 22d of May, 2010. Things here in Thailand are starting to get back to normal. The TV news is trying to make stories out of their own stories, in other words there really isn’t anything new to report so I’ll close this and return to more pleasant subjects.

On a personal note this situation has stiffened my resolve to really understand this language. Only a couple of very minor inconveniences have been inflicted upon this grateful soul as a result of all of this turmoil. I’m grateful and my heart goes out to those who actually have suffered during the past several weeks.

Abundant Blessings,

Jerry Nelson